Once I was so determined to get the outside of my house painted that I persisted, even though the weather forecast called for a 50% chance of rain. I thought I could beat the odds, but when the drops started falling, they created water marks in the paint which ended up being a decade-long reminder of my follies.
Even without foolish stubbornness, interpreting the chance of rain can be confusing, and there’s no way to predict 100% what will happen precisely at your home. But there are ways to plan wisely around a forecast.
For example, “In the summer, mornings and early afternoon may be a better window for being outdoors, since heat and humidity of the afternoons can raise the chance of rain,” says Sarah Dillingham, a meteorologist with The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.
Here’s what to know abut the percentage chance of rain, and how to plan projects around it.
What Does Percentage Chance of Rain Really Mean?
The percentage chance of rain predicts how likely it is that precipitation will fall in your area during a specific time period. For example, if there is a 40% chance of rain in your forecast for Tuesday afternoon, that means there’s a four out of 10 chance that you’ll get at least 0.01″ of rain during that time.
Chances of rain encompass a forecast area, such as a city or county. So a 40% chance of rain means 40% of your forecast area might see precipitation, while the other 60% remains dry.
“Those pop-up storms we see in Florida and other parts of the South in summer are a good case for explaining what a chance of rain means,” says Chris Dolce, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel app. “One location in a county can pick up an inch of rain on a day with a 40% chance of rain, while other parts of the same county might see nothing at all.”
Misconceptions About Percentage Chance of Rain
One of the most common misconceptions about the chance of rain forecast is that it will be raining that percentage of time in an area. The percentage chance of rain also does not tell anything about its duration or intensity, says Dolce.
“You could have a 100% chance of rain in your forecast, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be all day, as it could only last for an hour or two,” he says. “A 100% chance of rain also doesn’t mean there will be a drenching downpour, as it could just be light rain for a period of time.”
How to Plan Projects Around Percentage Chance of Rain
If you’re considering an outside project, like painting the house, pouring concrete or other activities that could be ruined by rain, check the forecast before your start, and then check the forecast and radar frequently throughout the day on a weather app like The Weather Channel (available on iOS, Google Play and others). Especially use caution if you see the chances increasing during the day.
“If the chance of rain is around 30% or 40%, it might not lend itself to canceling, since odds are in your favor,” says Dolce. “When the chance of rain is 50% or higher, that’s when it’s time to pause and think if your project might get ruined.”
Remember that during the summer months, daily thunderstorm activity can make it especially tricky to plan outdoor activities. That’s partly due to hot, humid patterns that lend themselves to pop-up thunderstorms.
Finally, if you do decide to chance it, create a backup plan for rain, such as having a tarp ready to cover your project, and always have a safe place to shelter in the event of a thunderstorm. It also helps to install a weather app on your smartphone, which alerts you to weather on the way.
About the Experts
- Chris Dolce is an editorial meteorologist for The Weather Channel app. He has over a decade of experience in providing weather updates and meteorological consultation.
- Sarah Dillingham is the senior director for product design and a meteorologist at The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety. She has also worked as a weather producer for The Weather Channel and CNN.
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